Recalibrating 2026: How Institutional Sentiment Has Shifted Into a Cooler, More Defensive Market
MV Global | November 2025
I. From Mid-Year Optimism to Late-Cycle Caution
We ran a new edition of the Crypto Sentiment Institutional Investors Survey from 4 to 11 November 2025, interviewing 62 leading crypto investors and repeating the same questions used in our July 2025 and October 2024 editions. This allows us to track how expectations have evolved as the cycle has matured.
Compared with mid-year, sentiment has cooled noticeably. The respondent mix shifted more institutional: hedge funds nearly doubled their representation, and managers with $100M+ in AUM now make up close to 30% of participants. This shift alone contributed to a more measured tone, as the responses reflect investors who are more valuation-driven, more attentive to macro conditions, and more selective with risk.
Across the survey, three broad adjustments stand out:
- Upside expectations have softened across BTC, ETH, and SOL
- More investors now believe parts of the market may have already peaked
- Conviction has rotated toward real-world and infrastructure-led themes
Overall, 45% expect the market-wide top to come in H1 2026, while nearly 20% think the peak has already occurred — a meaningful shift from the optimism observed earlier in the year for a longer cycle.
II. Bitcoin: Moderating but Still Anchored in 2026
Bitcoin remains the asset with the strongest baseline confidence, but expectations are no longer clustered around high-end targets. The most common outlook has lowered in the $130k–$150k range. A growing minority now expects a more conservative peak.
Timing expectations tell a similar story: most respondents still look to H1 2026, but the rise in those who believe BTC has already topped suggests the market is entering a more cautious and less momentum-driven phase. The tone is not pessimistic — simply more realistic about what the next leg of the cycle might look like.
III. Ethereum: Confidence Pulls Back
Ethereum sentiment weakened more visibly than Bitcoin’s. A much larger share of investors now expects ETH to remain below the $5,000 threshold, while only a small fraction still sees a path to five-figure prices.
Perhaps the most telling shift: nearly 30% of respondents believe ETH may already have peaked this cycle. While many still see room for a 2026 high, the confidence that ETH will play a leading performance role has softened considerably.
IV. Solana: The Sharpest Repricing
Solana experienced the steepest sentiment reversal in the survey. The share of investors expecting SOL to top out below $300 has almost doubled since July, and very few respondents now anticipate the extreme upside levels that were common earlier in the year.
Roughly a quarter believe SOL has already peaked, and even among optimists, expectations are more measured. Investors appear to be recalibrating Solana from a high-beta cycle leader to a still-important but less explosive asset as liquidity conditions tighten.
V. Sector Rotation: Fundamentals Back in Focus
One of the clearest shifts in this edition of the Crypto Sentiment Institutional Investors Survey is the move away from momentum-driven themes and toward sectors supported by real usage and revenue potential.
The strongest optimism now concentrates around:
- Layer 1s
- DeFi
- Stablecoins
- RWAs
Each attracts interest from mid-teen percentages of respondents, reflecting a broad preference for sectors with clearer adoption curves and regulatory clarity.
On the downside, gaming remains the most widely expected underperformer, with bearish sentiment intensifying further. Memecoins also score poorly, suggesting investors are pulling back from volatility-driven trades in favor of stability and fundamentals.
VI. What Will Drive 2026
Looking to the next phase of the cycle, respondents overwhelmingly expect performance to be driven by tangible adoption rather than speculative narratives. Tokenised RWAs and stablecoin expansion lead by a wide margin, followed by institutional flows into BTC and ETH.
Smaller pockets of optimism remain around AI-linked crypto work, but overall, allocators are positioning for a year defined by real utility: regulated capital entering the space, stronger infrastructure, and products with real user demand.
VII. Conclusion: A More Selective Market Environment
The November survey portrays a market moving into its mature phase. Expectations for major assets are more subdued, investors are more cautious about timing, and leadership is shifting toward segments where fundamentals matter more than momentum.
A meaningful part of the market now sees the peaks for several major assets as either behind us or relatively close, and allocators are increasingly concentrating on themes with durable economic activity — stablecoins, RWAs, DeFi, and core infrastructure.
Rather than chasing late-cycle upside, investors appear focused on resilience, selectivity, and steady adoption.
Would you like to see the full survey results?
Here is the link: https://hubs.ly/Q03TKfy_0
About MV Global
Established in 2019, MV Global has emerged as a force in the Web3 landscape focused on early-stage investments and venture building. Our mission is clear: to partner with mavericks, visionaries, and free thinkers to leverage blockchain-enabled technologies to build for the future.
