Recalibrating 2025: What Changed in Market Price Expectations?
MV Capital | July 2025
I. 2024 Expectations vs. 1H 2025 Reality
In October 2024, we surveyed 76 of the most active liquid and venture allocators in the crypto space. The goal was to capture a snapshot of market sentiment heading into what many believed would be a pivotal year for the asset class. The findings offered a clear view of where expectations were concentrated — on timing, price targets, and sector-level conviction.
Nearly half of all participants anticipated the crypto market would peak in the second half of 2025. This view was so widely shared that it was likely already priced into markets at the time. For Bitcoin, most allocators expected a cycle high between $100,000 and $150,000 — a conservative range compared to the forecasts published by institutional research houses like VanEck and Standard Chartered or figures like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor. A Twitter poll we ran around the same time reflected similar expectations.
Over 30% of survey participants believed SOL could exceed $600 this cycle — roughly a 4x from then-current levels. Sentiment around Ethereum was more mixed: one-third of respondents expected ETH to top out between $3,000 and $5,000, while another third were more bullish, predicting a peak between $5,000 and $7,000.
Source: MV Capital Industry Survey conducted in October 2024
At the sector level, investors were most bearish on gaming. Meanwhile, Crypto x AI was the most favored emerging narrative. Despite the ongoing media and retail enthusiasm around memecoins, very few professionals held exposure in their portfolios.
Since that October survey, the market has unfolded in ways both expected and unexpected. We saw a sharp year-end rally in 2024, with BTC reaching a new all-time high in November and December. Although Q1 of 2025 was marked by a difficult pullback, Bitcoin rallied again in May to reach another ATH of ~$112,000. However, SOL and ETH, which had peaked around $260 and $4,000, respectively, in late 2024 and early 2025, struggled to regain momentum after the Q1 drop.
As of July 7, 2025, BTC is trading at ~$109,000, ETH at $2,500, and SOL at $150. For Bitcoin, current levels sit comfortably within the $100,000 to $150,000 range forecasted by most allocators in the original survey. ETH and SOL, meanwhile, are trading well below their prior highs of $4,000 and $260, and also below the most widely expected peak levels. That said, the majority of participants had anticipated the true market top to arrive in the second half of 2025. Viewed through that lens, current price action may represent a mid-cycle pause rather than the end of the uptrend, especially in a market known for abrupt shifts in sentiment, liquidity, and narrative momentum.
Looking across sectors, several predictions held true. The gaming segment remained under pressure, validating the initially cautious outlook. Memecoins experienced the kind of volatility many expected. Meanwhile, Crypto x AI projects have yet to deliver on the bullish expectations, with most trading below their Q4 2024 highs.
Taken together, these developments highlight just how quickly sentiment can shift in crypto — and how crucial it is to track those shifts in real time. While some forecasts aged well, others were quickly overtaken by new market narratives, macro factors, or liquidity shocks.
II. July 2025 Sentiment Check: Insights from Our Latest Allocator Survey
To reassess market sentiment following a volatile first half of 2025, we conducted a new survey in July targeting leading digital asset allocators and industry specialists. The response base included 50+ participants, with 42% representing crypto-focused venture capital firms and 21% hedge funds.
The clearest shift is visible in Bitcoin expectations. While last year’s forecast clustered around a conservative $100,000 to $150,000 range, this time the majority of respondents (42%) expect BTC to reach between $150,000 and $200,000. A sizable share still projects a top in the $125,000 to $150,000 range (28%), but interestingly, 11% now expect a cycle high above $250,000, a level that had virtually no support in our previous survey.
Source: MV Capital Industry Survey conducted in July 2025
The anticipated timing of the peak has also drifted forward: 42% percent now expect BTC to top out in the first half of 2026, while 38% still see the peak landing in the second half of 2025. 13% believe the cycle could extend even further into the second half of 2026. Taken together, these results suggest not just rising price expectations, but a broadening belief that the current cycle has more room to run and will likely take longer to play out than originally assumed.
Ethereum sentiment remains more fragmented. As in the previous survey, responses are widely distributed, and no single price band dominates expectations. The most common view is that ETH will peak between $3,000 and $4,000 this cycle (28%), followed by nearly similar shares expecting tops between $5,000 and $7,500 (19%), and $4,000 and $5,000 (17%). Meanwhile, around 9% of respondents expect ETH to remain below $3,000, reflecting a degree of pessimism not previously captured. Others see significantly more upside, with 26% forecasting ETH to rise above $7,500, including 13% who anticipate a price beyond $10,000. Nearly half of the respondents see ETH peaking in the first half of 2026, while only a quarter still anticipate a top in the second half of this year. An additional 17% believe the top may not come until even later, in the second half of 2026.
While Solana sentiment remains positive, upside expectations have moderated. In the latest results, around one-third of respondents now forecast a peak between $300 and $400, while another quarter expect $400 to $500. Only ~21% still see the possibility of SOL exceeding $500, of which 15% expect SOL to reach a price higher than $750. As with Bitcoin and Ethereum, most participants expect Solana’s top to occur in 2026, with the first half slightly more favored (34%) than the second half of 2025 (32%).
Another notable shift appears in the sectors investors expect to lead performance. In the October 2024 survey, Crypto x AI dominated with 43% of respondents identifying it as the most promising thematic opportunity, followed by smaller allocations to DePin (14%), DeFi (11%), and Layer 1s (10%). In contrast, the latest results reveal a more balanced distribution of views, with both DeFi and AI now tied at 25%, a shift that likely reflects the pullback in AI-linked tokens following their late-2024 hype cycle. Interest in stablecoins and RWAs has increased meaningfully, with 17% and 15% of respondents highlighting them as potential outperformers. Layer 1s remain on the radar for 13%, showing persistent, if cautious, conviction.
Expectations for underperformance have remained relatively consistent, with Gaming still seen as the weakest segment. In October 2024, 28% of respondents named Gaming as the likely laggard, followed by 25% for Layer 2s and 10% for Consumer. In the latest survey, 38% selected Gaming, while Layer 2s and Memecoins each received 13%. Notably, DePin, previously the second most selected top performer, was named as the expected worst performer by 9% of respondents, highlighting a sharp reversal in sentiment.
III. Conclusion
Our July 2025 survey highlights how investor sentiment has evolved meaningfully over the past nine months, both in terms of price expectations and perceived market timing. While the October 2024 results were defined by conservatism and a clear concentration of views around a second-half 2025 peak, today’s responses reflect both rising confidence and a longer horizon. Investor sentiment has shifted toward a longer and more durable cycle, with most now projecting a peak in 2026, reflecting greater confidence in the cycle’s strength and duration.
Bitcoin remains the anchor of the market, but forecasts have shifted notably. The dominant target range has moved up from $100,000–$150,000 to $150,000–$200,000, with 11% now calling for a cycle high above $250,000, a level that had near-zero support in our previous survey. Ethereum continues to divide opinion, with price expectations ranging from below $3,000 to over $10,000. Solana sentiment remains constructive, but the most aggressive forecasts have moderated, and the expected peak has shifted into early 2026 for the majority.
One of the clearest shifts occurred in how investors view sectoral opportunities. AI, which dominated sentiment in 2024, has ceded ground to DeFi, stablecoins, and RWAs, all of which now feature prominently in allocator positioning. Gaming remains the most commonly cited laggard, with bearish views even stronger than last year. Perhaps most striking is the reversal in perception of DePin: once a top pick, it is now considered a likely underperformer by a meaningful share of participants.
This evolving sentiment is not occurring in a vacuum. Respondents highlighted three key forces shaping their revised outlooks. First, the changing US political landscape has created a more supportive environment for digital assets. Second, macroeconomic shifts have extended the perceived length of the market cycle, encouraging allocators to reassess timing and risk. And third, there is a growing recognition that real-world adoption, especially in areas like stablecoins, RWAs, is advancing faster than anticipated. As a result, investors are looking beyond just new technology and focusing more on how government decisions, global trade, and the movement of money are shaping the future of the market.
At MV Global, we see these developments as confirming a view we’ve held for some time: that long-term value will be driven by real-world use and steady adoption, not just excitement or trends. As interest settles around areas like decentralized finance, core infrastructure, and stable digital currencies — and as investment horizons lengthen — we’re adjusting our portfolio to reflect this shift. We believe the most lasting value will come from applications that generate meaningful revenue, and from the platforms where those applications are built. That means leaning into high-conviction opportunities with tangible user traction, regulatory tailwinds, and strong token-model fundamentals, while maintaining flexibility in more speculative segments where timing remains less certain.
Curious to see all the insights? Dive into the full survey results here: https://hubs.ly/Q03wBKXV .
About MV Global
Established in 2019, MV Global has emerged as a force in the Web3 landscape focused on early-stage investments and venture building. Our mission is clear: to partner with mavericks, visionaries, and free thinkers to leverage blockchain-enabled technologies to build for the future.
