Exploring the Trends in MV Global’s Q4 2024 Crypto Investment Manager Survey
Ahead of the highly anticipated ‘parabolic’ phase of crypto cycle, MV Global surveyed 76 top crypto fund managers — spanning both VC and liquid fund allocators — to get a clearer read on what’s driving their portfolios this cycle. Here’s a closer look at the major themes and takeaways, along with direct insights from allocators themselves on what’s hot, what’s not, and where they’re placing their bets. Access the full report here.
Executive Summary
Key Takeaways:
- BTC Expectations Tempered: The consensus peak for Bitcoin sits between $100,000 and $150,000, noticeably below some of the more ambitious institutional targets out there.
- Solana Stands Out: Allocators are notably bullish on Solana, with over 30% predicting a peak above $600.
- Ethereum Sentiment is Divided: Bullish ETH positions are becoming increasingly contrarian.
- Sector Sentiment: Strong interest in Crypto x AI, while gaming faces surprising skepticism.
- Memecoins as Side Bets: Allocators dabble in memecoins personally, though few include them in professional portfolios.
In-Depth Insights
1. Allocators see Bitcoin topping below $150,000
Allocators aren’t expecting Bitcoin to explode this cycle. Most of them cap their targets at $150,000, far below the forecasts from names like VanEck or Grayscale. This muted outlook might reflect recent market turbulence and a “wait-and-see” approach for now.
2. Solana is a consensus 3x+. Too consensus?
Solana has become the go-to asset for many allocators, with over 30% expecting it to surpass $600 this cycle. For a lot of allocators, Solana represents a straightforward way to gain exposure to DePIN and memecoin sectors. One Liquid Fund Analyst shared, “There’s high conviction that ETH and SOL will outperform BTC this cycle, but SOL has much more room to run.”
3. ETH is deeply unloved by the allocator community compared to other majors
Sentiment around Ethereum is split: about a third expect a high between $3,000 and $5,000, while another third think it’ll reach $5,000 to $7,000. Holding ETH is starting to feel like a contrarian play for allocators who are becoming more focused on Solana. “The consensus view that SOL will outperform ETH is almost too strong — it’s starting to make me nervous,” a VC Fund Analyst remarked.
4. Crypto x AI: High Potential, Gaming: Skepticism
Despite some recent success stories in crypto gaming, the sentiment here remains mostly bearish. In contrast, the potential for Crypto x AI has captured allocators’ attention, with Trusted Execution Environments (TEE) emerging as a high-potential play. As one Liquid Fund Partner commented, “Everyone’s looking at AI, but very few understand the intricacies of who will actually make it in this space.”
5. Funds are still avoiding memecoins
Most allocators steer clear of memecoins in their professional portfolios, but over half admit to personal investments in this category. Memecoins have become a fun, liquid play akin to profile picture NFTs, and many allocators are happy to trade them on the side. “Memecoins are just a hot money trade that you can’t scale institutionally,” noted a Liquid Fund Analyst.
6. Altcoin SZN will be limited
Most allocators expect an “alt season” to materialize, but it’ll be a narrow rally focused on high-conviction names. SOL is the front-runner, with newer L1s like Sui and TON showing potential and capturing 31.4% and 27.1% of allocator interest, respectively. As one Large VC Partner put it, “There are 100x more tokens now than last cycle, making it tough to imagine broad-based gains across all altcoins.”
7. Stablecoins dominate DeFi prospects
Stablecoins continue to shine as the top DeFi pick (45.7%), with derivatives following closely behind. Stablecoins have proven essential to the crypto ecosystem, but allocators struggle to find direct ways to capitalize on their success. According to a VC Fund Managing Partner, “Stablecoins have a solid story, but DeFi as a whole feels more like a last-cycle play.”
Final Thoughts
MV Global’s Q4 2024 Crypto Investment Manager Survey points to cautious optimism among allocators, with moderate expectations for BTC and solid conviction in specific assets like Solana, and AI. Traditional sectors like DeFi and Gaming face mixed reviews, and while memecoins have found a place in personal accounts, they’re largely absent from institutional portfolios.
To dig deeper into these insights, access the full report here.
About MV Global
Founded in 2019, MV Global has established itself as a significant player in the Web3 space, focusing on early-stage investments and venture building. Our mission is to partner with innovators, visionaries, and freethinkers to harness the power of blockchain technology and build a better future.
